Bank failures: Causes and Lessons

 

Overview of bank failures

Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), USA's 16th largest bank was closed on March 10 after it experienced a bank run i.e., depositors rushing to the bank to withdraw their funds all at once. It is considered the second-largest bank failure since 2008. SVB was specializing in lending to technology startups, and it has invested a large amount in long-term debt like treasury bonds. When SVB tried to raise cash to fulfill the need of venture-capital firms by selling such assets it created market fear and uninsured depositors took notice of it and started rushing to take deposits out of the system.

Second, New York-based Signature Bank also shut down on March 12, 2023, after its customers started withdrawing billions of dollars in the wake of the collapse of SVB. The bank had considerable amounts of uninsured deposits and was exposed to the crypto sector. It is considered the third-largest bank failure since the 2008 financial crisis.

Following the two largest bank failures depositors at First Republic Bank, another US bank, have been moving their money to larger institutions.

While two midsized US banks specializing in the tech sector collapsed, Credit Suisse- Switzerland’s second largest lender and the 167-year-old bank is also in trouble due to various mismanagement issues and other scandals it was dealing with.

Similarly, the value of banking stock has also been seen coming down and fluctuating this time.

Responses toward bank failures

While people were panicking over the failure of two banks in the USA, US president Joe Biden assured that the American banking system remains safe even after the collapse of two U.S. banks and he would seek to hold those responsible and pressed for better oversight and regulation of larger banks. And he promised no losses would be borne by taxpayers.

The Federal deposit insurance corporation (FDIC) in the USA earlier has only guaranteed deposits of a smaller amount of about $250000, but at the advent of such failures it guaranteed all deposits at the failed banks and Treasury created a new facility to provide cash for banks suffering rushes of withdrawal. Six central banks have announced that they would boost the flow of US dollars to lessen the impact on the supply of credit. Such measures were taken only during the 2008 financial crisis and at height of the COVID pandemic.

Credit Suisse- Switzerland’s bank is taken over by its rival Union Bank of Switzerland in a deal encouraged by Swiss authority to restore confidence in the Swiss banking sector.

Common factors affecting the banking sector overall: rising interest rates.

The central bank across the world has been increasing the interest rate to stabilize the rising inflation created due to the COVID stimulus, Ukraine and Russia war, the restriction against Russia by US and EU, and rising tensions between China and India.

Such a step of the central bank has reduced the market value of debt instruments they were holding as assets and increased the cost of liabilities (White,2023). Such misalignment between asset and liabilities resulting due to rising rates have been affecting the overall banking system.

Comparison of the current banking crisis and financial crisis of 2008

Failure of bigger banks and declining banking shares have raised fears of a broader economic downturn similar to the 2008 financial crisis. But the problems seen in those banks are largely due to interest rate hikes and other institution-specific problems. The situation is different from of the 2008 global financial crisis where there was an overall systemic problem in the economy. Moreover, the regulation and capital of the current financial system are more robust than before. Most experts believe that the problem seen in those banks are not systemic and will be checked.

Lessons from bank failures

The banking business runs on trust. It can only last as long as people's confidence rest with it. Bank do not hold all their assets in cash, it provides loan and advances and invests in short-term and long-term assets. It simply tries to maintain an optimum balance between the required liquidity and profitability. In case of loss in public confidence and a situation like a bank run the banking model simply cannot function and fails down. Similar was the situation seen in the banks mentioned above. The banks could not fulfill the obligation of their depositors at the time due to many depositors rushing for withdrawal.

Silicon Valley Bank was highly focused on clients within a single sector i.e., fintech and crypto businesses as well as venture capitalists. Its deposit and lending were concentrated in the single sector. Similarly, its investment was more concentrated in long-term government bonds and other government securities which were severely affected by the increase in interest rates. It thus faced the consequences of concentration risk, interest risk, liquidity risk, and lack of overall management oversight.

Risks of individual banks should be timely supervised. The effect of concentration in any risk like in the current case interest rate risk should be avoided. Silicon Valley had invested 60% of its money in government bonds like instruments. If timely checked, its failure could have been prevented. The central bank should be careful in raising interest rates and should ask banks to reduce their interest rate exposure before rising interest rates if it can result in bank failure or other spillover effects.

The failure of those banks has no direct effect on Nepal but vital lessons on risk arising from rising interest rates, the sensitivity of asset and liability management, the necessity of timely supervisory review, and self-regulation could be learned.

 

Way forward for Nepal

In the context of Nepal Nepal Rastra Bank (NRB) also has been raising interest rates to curb the existing inflation. As per the Current Macroeconomic and Financial Situation of Nepal (Based on Seven Months’ Data Ending Mid-February, 2022/23) published by NRB the weighted average lending rate of Nepal is about 13%, and inflation is about 7.28%. Considering the existing inflation, the interest rate of Nepal cannot be considered too large. Similarly, the investment portfolio of banks in Nepal is also not concentrated in a single sector only.

NRB has specified a Single obligor limit, sector-wise credit limit, individual/institution-wise deposit limit, and other various prudential norms which have been protecting our financial system from such unwanted shocks. Nevertheless, the current problem in our banking system is more concentrated on working capital loans and their use for other purposes such as imports, investment in real estate, and the stock market. Due to the use of loans for other unproductive purposes Banks and Financial Institutions (BAFIs) is often criticized for surged lending that has contributed to the ballooning imports. To address this NRB issued working capital guidelines to mobilize working capital for a defined purpose and reduce the use of the loan in the unproductive sector. However, its effectiveness is yet to be seen.

NRB's prudent regulations and supervisory review of existing BAFIs have made them more resilient than ever and the interest rate exposure of BAFIs is not a threat for now.

While a fall in the value of crypto assets caused a decrease in the value of assets of banks considered problematic above, in the case of Nepal banks, people, firms, or other companies cannot involve in such type of investment and it is considered illegal. However, an effective legal framework and supervisory capacity should be enhanced to check such type of investment in Nepal.

However current problems like a protest against existing interest rates demanding loan forgiveness, the rise of fraud and mismanagement by cooperatives, the inability to effectively increase internal production and productivity with the flow of credit to the productive sector, unhealthy competition between BAFIs to increase deposit is creating challenges to our financial system to maintain stability in the long run.  If such problems can be timely taken care of the risk of bank failure can be avoided for a long. 

References

Takami, K. (2023, March 20). U.S. bank turmoil reflects blatant failure by the Fed, expert says. Nikkei Asia.https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/U.S.-bank-turmoil-reflects-blatant-failure-by-the-Fed-expert-says.

Thompson,M.(2023, March 20). Global banking crisis: What just happened? CNN Business. https://edition.cnn.com/2023/03/17/business/global-banking-crisis-explained/index.html

 

Meyersohn.N.(2023,March 16). Credit Suisse: Why it’s struggling and why that’s a big deal. CNN Business.https://edition.cnn.com/2023/03/16/investing/why-credit-suisse-is struggling/index.html

 

White.C.(2023, February 9). Rising Interest Rates Complicate Banks’ Investment Portfolios. Supervising our Nation’s Financial Institutions.      

https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2023/feb/rising-rates-complicate-banks-investment-portfolios#:~:text=While%20rising%20interest%20rates%20give,investment%20securities%20held%20as%20assets.

 

NRB. (2023, February). Current Macroeconomic and Financial Situation of Nepal

https://www.nrb.org.np/contents/uploads/2023/03/Current-Macroeconomic-and-Financial-Situation-English-Based-on-Seven-Months-data-of-2022.23.pdf

 

Haskell.J(2023, March 14). Failure of 2 US banks creates concern among customers at other banks of similar size. Eyewitness news: Personal Finance. https://abc7ny.com/bank-failures-silicon-valley-signature-president-biden/12950505/

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